Vinay Mundhe

A Software Developer Writing on Tech, Money, and Life

Tag: Tesla

  • A Hedge Against the Falling Rupee

    A Hedge Against the Falling Rupee

    Every Indian investor keeps talking about SIPs, large caps, small caps, and midcaps. But hardly anyone talks about something just as important:

    Your wealth is tied to the rupee, and the rupee keeps falling.

    See the following image. This is Rupee depreciation eating into your global purchasing power. You feel rich in INR. You feel average in USD. A big reason for the current FII outflow.

    This is why I’m slowly increasing my U.S. stock allocation.

    Let me break it down simply.

    My current split

    Right now, I have around 18–20% of my portfolio in U.S. equities.
    I’m planning to increase this to 30% over time.

    Not in a hurry.
    Not trying to time anything.
    Just a slow shift.

    Why?

    Because your money is silently losing value when the rupee weakens.

    The math nobody talks about

    This year, the rupee went from ₹83.30 → ₹90.50 against the dollar.

    That’s almost 7 rupees of decline.

    If you had simply held USD, without touching stocks, without doing anything fancy…

    ₹100 worth of dollars would’ve silently turned into ₹108.
    Zero effort.
    Zero stock market risk.
    Pure currency effect.

    Your money grows without the market helping you.

    Now imagine combining this with strong U.S. stocks like
    Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Broadcom…

    You get a double benefit:

    • USD appreciation
    • U.S. market returns

    Meanwhile, inflation in India + rupee depreciation eats away your returns here.

    This is the part people usually ignore.

    Not running away from India, I’m just being practical

    I still invest heavily in India.
    My high-conviction bets are Indian companies (you already know them).
    But the rupee is not your friend long-term.

    Every decade, it quietly steals from you.

    That’s why I’m adding this hedge.

    How I’m doing it (simple strategy)

    I’m doing three things:

    • Adding slowly to major U.S. tech names
    • Keeping SIPs running in Indian MFs
    • Rebalancing whenever things look off

    30% U.S. exposure is enough to protect the downside and benefit from global growth.

    The takeaway

    Invest in U.S because:

    • Your rupee is weakening
    • Your global purchasing power matters
    • USD appreciation cushions your long-term returns
    • You want a portfolio that works in any scenario

    A simple hedge.
    A smart move.
    And something we Indians should consider seriously.

  • First Principle Thinking

    First Principle Thinking

    Elon Musk used first-principle thinking to solve complex real-world problems at Tesla and SpaceX. I read about it, tried to simplify it and understand how we can use the same approach in our lives.

    What’s first principle thinking?

    First-principles thinking is like taking a problem apart to its most basic pieces, ignoring what everyone else says or does, and building a solution from scratch based on what’s absolutely true.

    It’s about asking, “What do we know is true?” and starting there instead of copying what’s already out there.

    To apply this in our lives, you will have to start questioning common advice and beliefs.

    Don’t just accept “this is how it’s done” (e.g. “you need a college degree to succeed” or “work 9-to-5 for 40 years”). Ask why those rules exist and if they make sense for you.

    Example in Life:

    You’re told to buy a house because “it’s a good investment.”

    Instead, break it down:

    What’s a house? A place to live that costs money (home loans, taxes, maintenance).

    What’s the goal? Financial security and comfort.

    Truth: Renting might be cheaper and give flexibility if you move often. So, you calculate costs and decide renting aligns better with your goals.

    Example in Career:

    Everyone says “climb the corporate ladder.” But you ask: What’s a career? A way to earn money and find purpose.

    Truth: Freelancing or starting a side hustle could give you more control and fulfilment. You test it by learning a skill like coding or design, skipping the traditional path.

    Elon Musk used the first principles at Tesla.

    He didn’t just accept that batteries were pricey. He looked at the raw materials, calculated their cost, and figured out Tesla could make batteries cheaper by building their own factories (like the Gigafactory). This helped Tesla make electric cars more affordable over time.

    How You Can Start

    Start questioning everything.
    Next time someone says “That’s just how it’s done,” ask:
    “Why?”
    “What’s the goal here?”
    “Is this actually true for me?”

    You don’t need to be Elon to think like him. You just need curiosity, courage, and the willingness to start from scratch.